Dembele largely secured the award off the back of his performances in helping Paris Saint-Germain win their first European Cup, and the Champions League is yet again likely to have a big say on the Ballon d'Or battle this time around. However, it's also a World Cup year, so there is a chance that the eventual winner doesn't emerge until the summer in North America.
Don't forget, too, that there is the Africa Cup of Nations running from late December and into January, meaning there could be some players who don't only shine for their clubs but also impress at two major tournaments over the course of the campaign.
The Ballon d'Or race is a marathon not a sprint, and it's worth bearing in mind that Dembele didn't emerge as a potential contender until midway through the 2024-25 campaign. However, with the European season now properly up and running, so too are GOAL's Power Rankings as we track the likeliest winners of the Golden Ball over the coming weeks and months:
| Follow GOAL on WhatsApp! 🟢📱 |
Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain)
In 2025-26: Six assists, seven clean sheets. Won UEFA Super Cup.
Widely regarded as the best right-back in the world, Hakimi placed sixth in the 2025 Ballon d'Or voting after a season in which he contributed as much to the PSG attack as he did ensure they remained solid at the back. One of the leaders within Luis Enrique's squad, his performances will again have a large bearing on the French champions' fortunes at home and on the continent.
Hakimi has made a decent start to the season, but what places him so high in our rankings is the potential for him to shine on the international stage. Morocco reached the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup and have the strongest squad among the African qualifiers for 2026, meaning another deep run isn't beyond the realms of possibility. Before that, they are the favourites to triumph on home soil at AFCON, with Hakimi set to be the face of the tournament if all goes well for the Atlas Lions.
Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid)
In 2025-26: Six goals, six assists.
It's fair to say that the 2024-25 season didn't quite go to plan for Vinicius. The Real Madrid man swore revenge for missing out on the 2024 Ballon d'Or to Rodri, but despite a strong start to the campaign, he soon found himself playing second fiddle to Kylian Mbappe at Santiago Bernabeu, which in turn meant his impact on games took a sharp downward turn.
The early signs are, however, positive that Xabi Alonso might be able to get the best out of both Vinicius and Mbappe, with the Brazilian's influence on Los Blancos beginning to grow once more. At international level, meanwhile, Vini will be expected to step up and become the Selecao's leader under Carlo Ancelotti as they aim to end their 24-year wait for a sixth global title this summer.
Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)
In 2025-26: Four goals, one assist.
With Arsenal sat top of the Premier League and playing like a team who could be set for silverware both in England and potentially in Europe, the Gunners look poised to have plenty of potential Ballon d'Or candidates. Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi and Gabriel Magalhaes have all enjoyed strong starts to the season while representing nations with aspirations of winning the World Cup, but for now we've gone for Saka as the likeliest to emerge as a Golden Ball favourite.
The winger has the advantage of being able to tally massive goal and assist numbers if he hits top form while Saka is almost assured of a starting role for England at the World Cup as they begin to look like potential winners again under Thomas Tuchel. Given his previous tournament displays, Saka producing in North America is almost a prerequisite at this point.
Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain)
In 2025-26: Two goals, five assists. Won UEFA Super Cup.
Vitinha has come a long way from his underwhelming loan spell at Wolves five years ago to finishing on the Ballon d'Or podium in 2025, and the PSG dictator-in-chief is now regarded by many as the best midfielder on the planet. Certainly he has played in such a fashion to begin the new season and even looks to be adding more goal and assist output to his game.
He will also form part of a Portugal squad next summer that, after winning the Nations League, has a genuine belief that they can win the World Cup. Should they do so, then Vitinha will likely have played a massive part.
Pedri (Barcelona)
In 2025-26: Four goals, two assists.
If Vitinha isn't the best midfielder in the world, that's only because he's second to Pedri, who continues to delight Barcelona fans with his consistently high-level performances at the heart of Hansi Flick's side. For all the talk of Barcelona's vaunted forward line, they are team who only tick when Pedri is pulling the strings, and he has been doing so in impressive fashion yet again to kick-off the new season.
Pedri will also form part of what might be the best midfield unit at the World Cup as Spain look to add a global title to the European one they won in 2024. This, then, could be the year when the world finally appreciates for Pedri for the superstar he truly is.
Nuno Mendes (Paris Saint-Germain)
In 2025-26: Three goals, four assists, two clean sheets. Won UEFA Super Cup.
Nuno Mendes secured a top-10 finish in the 2025 Ballon d'Or voting, and he already looks well on the way to repeating that feat despite not having been a regular starter for PSG to begin the season. Luis Enrique has chosen to rotate his squad given their long summer of competing at the Club World Cup, but there is an argument that no one has made more use of their minutes on the pitch than Mendes.
The marauding 23-year-old has a claim to be the best all-round full-back anywhere in the world, and he has already showcased both his attacking and defensive capabilities at key moments since August. Another who will be key to Portugal's chances at the World Cup, international and club success is not out of reach for him in 2026.
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)
In 2025-26: Three goals, eight assists.
The bookmakers' favourite, Yamal is well on course to become the first player under the age of 21 to win the Ballon d'Or, and he wouldn't even have to win it in 2026 to do so! The Barcelona teenager's performances in the latter stages of last season's Champions League saw him emerge in the eyes of many as the best footballer in the world, and his runners-up finish behind Dembele in the Golden Ball voting was testament to that.
There are those who still believe he needs to produce more decisive moments in the biggest games while there are concerns that the number of matches Yamal has played at such a young age are leading to an increase in injury problems. But with all that said, if Yamal stays fit, he has the talent to lead both Barca and Spain to titles, and subsequently become the Ballon d'Or frontrunner.
Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
In 2025-26: 24 goals, three assists.
After an underwhelming season by his own lofty standards, Haaland has gone into 'terminator mode' to start the new campaign, becoming a one-man battering ram for Manchester City as they aim to re-establish themselves as challengers for both the Premier League and Champions League. Already well on his way to a third Golden Boot in four seasons, defences have been powerless to stop the 25-year-old thus far.
Haaland's start to the season has undoubtedly put him in the early Ballon d'Or conversation, but his chances this time are set to be boosted by Norway likely qualifying for the World Cup, giving their star striker the chance to appear at a major tournament for the first time. The Scandinavians are unlikely to be among the favourites to win in North America, but Haaland could yet use the global stage to put a bow on his Golden Ball bid if all goes well at club level.
Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid)
In 2025-26: 18 goals, four assists.
Is this the year Mbappe finally gets his hands on the Ballon d'Or? Almost from the moment he emerged as a teenager at Monaco the forward has been anointed a future Golden Ball winner. But as he approaches his 27th birthday, Mbappe is still waiting for his opportunity to stand atop the podium in Paris.
So far, he could have done little more to give himself the best chance possible to end that wait, with Mbappe having carried Real Madrid to the top of La Liga with a number of match-winning goals. He has also saved the best international performances of his career for World Cups, and so expect the France captain to go the distance in this race.
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
In 2025-26: 23 goals, three assists. Won DFL-Supercup.
There will always be those who don't appreciate Harry Kane for the level of footballer he is, but now that he has got the trophy monkey off his back that so many used to question him over the years, the Bayern Munich striker now looks to be out to show that he is also worthy of individual recognition after starting the campaign at a record-breaking pace.
As well as scoring mountains of goals, Kane has showcased his all-round game to devastating effect for the Bundesliga champions, and if he can maintain this form then further silverware will be coming his way at the end of the campaign. England fans, meanwhile, are praying that their captain doesn't again run out of steam before the summer, with Kane key to the Three Lions' hopes of finally ending 60 years of hurt at the World Cup.