Over the next few months, India’s power system will be tested as never before. The conflict in the Gulf has already tightened global gas supplies and pushed prices sharply upwards, threatening the viability of gas-based generation (~20 GW but needed on non-solar peak hours) and raising the cost of every imported unit of energy. At the same time, our own electricity demand is set to peak in the coming summer, with rising temperatures, expanding air conditioning, and growing electrification of mobility and industry. Put simply, we face a double squeeze: Less affordable gas on the supply side, and more electricity demand on the demand side.
In such a situation, any shortfall in gas is not just a fuel problem; it is an energy security issue, which, if not addressed in a timely manner, can expose a nation's vulnerability. Gas-based plants have long served as flexible support for the grid, covering evening peaks and balancing variable renewable energy. As gas availability shrinks, battery storage capacity is proving slow to come on stream, and as gas prices hit the roof, meeting peak demand could be extremely challenging, even as evening demand climbs due to a combination of household cooking loads, cooling and commercial activity. If we do not act now to bring ready-to-build and ready-to-generate renewable energy projects online, especially those that contribute in the evening hours, we may face grid stability issues as well.
The good news is that India is not short of renewable energy potential; the challenge is the execution of RE projects. Recent analysis and reports published by various sources show that five issues alone—grid construction delays, suboptimal connectivity allocation, land and right-of-way hurdles, regulatory frictions, and delays in signing Power Sale Agreements—could collectively jeopardise 40–60 GW of wind projects that ought to be commissioned by 2030. Transmission system delays already put at risk around 6 GW of wind capacity today and could threaten another 34 GW if not resolved.
Why does this matter so much now, when gas is scarce and demand is rising? Because modern system-wide modelling by the STELLAR model and independent experts shows that wind power, in particular, is central to least-cost resource adequacy in India. When reliability and actual operating constraints are modelled properly, expansion plans consistently pull in more wind every year, quickly hitting the conservative caps that planners have imposed in their optimisation runs. In state after state—Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh—the least-cost, reliability-compliant pathway calls for far more wind than current state plans and procurement pipelines assume. Where caps on annual wind additions are relaxed in the models, the system absorbs roughly 90+ GW more wind by 2035, while still meeting stringent reliability standards.
The benefits are not abstract but proven through modelling. A least cost of energy planning where we allow wind to compete fairly and remove artificial ceilings, yields around ₹2.3 lakh crore in system-wide savings between 2026 and 2035, even after accounting for higher upfront capital investment. Those savings come from lower fuel costs, fewer coal starts and stops, and reduced dependence on expensive balancing capacity. Coal capacity remains in the system as a safety net, but its average plant load factor falls by about 6 percentage points, reflecting a shift from baseload to flexible, residual operation. At the same time, emissions fall faster, and the grid’s exposure to fuel price shocks—like the ones we are now seeing in global gas markets—is materially reduced.
Especially, the resolution of a steeper evening peak is the need of the hour. Batteries and other storage technologies will undoubtedly be central to India’s long-term transition. However, the global supply chain for lithium-ion batteries and critical minerals remains highly concentrated, subject to trade restrictions and price volatility. In the next 2–3 years, relying on large-scale battery roll-out alone as the first line of defence against gas shortages would leave India exposed to a different set of geopolitical dependencies. By contrast, we already have a substantial pipeline of wind and solar projects with land, offtake and equipment largely tied up, awaiting last-mile clearances, connectivity and PPAs. In an emergency, prioritising rapid execution of these projects is the true low-hanging fruit: it uses domestic capabilities, existing manufacturing capacity and approved corridors, while giving batteries time to scale up on more secure, diversified supply chains.
From the perspective of this summer’s evening peaks, the hierarchy of urgency is, therefore, clear. First, get every feasible megawatt of wind and wind-heavy hybrid capacity connected and generating, because these plants naturally produce in late afternoon and evening hours when solar output falls and gas-based plants may be constrained by fuel. Second, sustain high execution of solar projects, which continue to lower daytime demand on coal and with storage support supply in evenings. Third, support storage deployment strategically, without assuming that batteries can be rolled out at scale in a matter of months in the face of uncertain global mineral and cell supply.
What, then, must be done on an emergency footing?
First, we need a time-bound Summer 2026 RE Readiness Mission co-led by the ministry of power and MNRE, with CEA and CTUIL as the technical backbone. The mission’s mandate should be clear: identify all renewable projects—especially wind and wind-solar hybrids —that can be connected or energised within the next 6–12 months, and resolve their bottlenecks on a war-footing. This means fast-tracking transmission bay readiness, reconciling mismatches between project commissioning and substation completion, and, where necessary, approving temporary evacuation arrangements that can later be regularised. A joint task force has already been recommended by industry to address grid, land and PSA issues for achieving 100 GW of wind by 2030; that recommendation now needs to be implemented with Cabinet-level backing.
Second, connectivity allocation in high-wind zones must be rationalised immediately. Substations in Rajasthan, Gujarat, and other wind-rich regions where high-CUF wind can provide firm evening support should prioritise capacity for ready-to-be commissioned wind and wind-heavy hybrids, rather than allowing queue-based allocation alone for projects not nearing completion to crowd out the corridors. In a year when gas is constrained and the evening peak is our Achilles’ heel, this is simple prudence.
Third, states must treat wind and hybrid projects as infrastructure of national importance for the coming 24 months. That means single-window clearance for land and right-of-way, time-bound approvals for development permissions, and strict adherence to central guidelines on forecasting, scheduling and deviation settlement. Impending policy changes at state level should not apply for projects achieving commissioning before mid-2027. Investors will respond quickly if the rules are clear for even a few years.
Fourth, we must modernise our view of resource adequacy. CEA has rightly moved towards more sophisticated, chronological models to plan capacity expansion. The next step is to embed a harmonised national methodology that values dependable megawatts in critical time bands—day, evening, night and seasons—rather than treating all megawatts as equal. When adequacy is framed in terms of firm energy and ramping capability, wind’s contribution in evening and monsoon shoulder hours becomes visible and bankable, and planning automatically shifts towards portfolios of wind, solar and storage that lower both cost and risk. This is the only planning approach consistent with the volatile fuel markets we see today.
Fifth, PSA delays must be addressed. Today, nearly 12 GW of capacity is stuck in limbo because PSAs are pending, with average delays approaching eight months. In an environment of gas scarcity and high demand, this is a self-inflicted wound. The ministry of power can and should work with DISCOMs to build consensus on a higher system value for wind-based RE projects, based on the peculiarities of the concerned state's demand pattern.
Some will argue that these steps are ambitious, that we cannot possibly move so fast. To them, I would point out that India has repeatedly demonstrated extraordinary execution when the nation recognised an emergency—whether dealing with disasters, vaccinating against a pandemic, or stabilising the financial system. The present combination of Gulf conflict, gas scarcity and record electricity demand is precisely such a moment. The decisions taken in the next six months—on transmission, on PSAs, on state-level regulations and on resource-adequacy methodology—will determine not only how we ride out this summer, but how resilient our power system will be to the next geopolitical shock.
India has set itself the goal of 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 and net zero by 2070. These are long-term milestones. But history will record whether, when confronted with an immediate crisis of fuel and power, we treated renewable energy as a central pillar of energy security or as a file to be moved after the summer passed. For the sake of our economy, our consumers and our strategic autonomy, we must choose the former.
This article is authored by Alok Kumar, former secretary, power, Government of India and member, India Energy Stack.