India’s solar sector currently faces two major problems— growing waste, and the fact that domestic manufacturing is vulnerable to geopolitical risks. To manage these issues, the country needs to transition to a circular solar industry. The biggest roadblock to this is that India currently lacks a strong domestic solar module recycling industry. There is an urgent need for targeted interventions to establish and scale this industry.
To support this planning, we have sized India’s solar module recycling capacity and investment requirement by 2047, and market opportunity in 2047. We also estimate the reduction in demand for virgin materials by recycling, and the corresponding emission reductions. We use this evidence to recommend immediate priorities for policymakers, manufacturers, and recyclers to create a robust solar module recycling industry in India.
First, we estimate India’s solar waste by 2047 using our in-house waste estimation model (MNRE and CEEW 2024). The capacity installations used for this waste estimation are based on the actual annual installations until 2024, and the projected annual additions until 2047, as per the growth rates from our earlier study (Das et al 2025). According to this trajectory India’s cumulative solar capacity reaches 534 GW by 2047. Based on projected waste, we estimate the number of recycling facilities and the investment needed to support this infrastructure for both crystalline silicon and thin-film modules. The market opportunity is estimated based on the recovery rates and resale values for different materials reported in literature. The emissions savings are estimated using a standard lifecycle analysis approach using India-specific emission factors for different parameters.
This paper is authored by Akanksha Tyagi, Prashant Badal and Ajinkya Kale, CEEW, New Delhi.