India’s monsoon rainfall this year is likely to be below normal at around 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of ±5%, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said on Tuesday, flagging the return of El Niño as a key risk to the June–September season.
There is a 40% probability of below-normal rainfall — between 90% and 95% of the LPA — and a 30% chance of drought conditions, with rainfall falling below 90% of the LPA, according to Skymet’s projections. The probability of a normal monsoon is 20%, of above-normal rainfall 10%, and of excess rain zero. The LPA for the four-month monsoon season is 868.6mm.
The forecast carries significant economic implications. Monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s economy. According to the agriculture ministry, 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed. With 47% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a below-par monsoon can dampen rural consumption and push up food prices in a year when the conflict in West Asia threatens to pose a larger threat to energy availability and fertilisers – a critical farm input.
Skymet had flagged the risk as early as January. “The spread is likely to be below normal, being 90-95% of LPA. In its earlier projection in Jan 2026, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2026 to be subpar and now retains the same,” the forecaster said.
The primary concern is the return of El Niño. After a year and a half of La Niña conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral conditions, but a shift is imminent, according to Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet. “Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular,” he said.
This aligns with the India Meteorological Department’s own assessment. HT reported on April 1 that neutral ENSO conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, according to IMD. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely to continue until June, after which the probability of El Niño increases gradually.
M Mohapatra, director general of IMD, did not comment on Skymet’s forecast but said IMD may issue its initial forecast before April 15.
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of a natural climate cycle — called ENSO, or El Nino Southern Oscillation — driven by sea-surface temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino, the warmer phase, typically suppresses India’s monsoon and brings weaker rainfall; La Nina, its cooler counterpart, tends to strengthen it.
Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influences monsoon circulation. Skymet expects the IOD to be neutral or slightly positive this year, which should contribute to a decent start to the season. “A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially avert the ill effects of El Niño,” the forecaster said.
However, it added, the IOD is not expected to be strong enough to offset El Niño through the season. “The chances of monsoon getting impaired during the second half of season cannot be dismissed. The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased,” Skymet said. Central and northwest India may face a rainfall deficit.
June will be stable, but rainfall is likely to weaken from July to September, Skymet said. June rainfall is projected at 101% of the LPA (the LPA for June is 165.3mm), but the numbers decline thereafter: July at 95% (LPA 280.5mm), August at 92% (LPA 254.9mm) and September at 89% (LPA 167.9mm).
“After June, El Nino conditions are expected to evolve rapidly. We are expecting June rainfall to be normal but in August and September rainfall could be lower than normal. Towards the second half, El Nino conditions are likely to be established. IOD is also not expected to be very strong,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.
Palawat added that unlike recent years, the spatial distribution of rainfall is likely to shift eastward, with states such as Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha expected to receive more rainfall than parts of northwest and central India. “This may impact the paddy and other monsoon crops,” he said.
Skymet’s track record is mixed. In 2023, ahead of the El Niño onset, it forecast below-normal rain at 94% of the LPA, and 94% was realised. But in both 2024 and 2025, the forecaster underestimated the monsoon: it predicted 102% and 103% of the LPA respectively, while actual rainfall came in at 108% in both years.