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Why tracking cash flow matters more than profit when picking stocks

Investors often focus on profit numbers while analysing stocks. Quarterly net profit growth, margins and earnings surprises dominate headlines. But history shows that profits alone do not sustain companies alive. Cash does.

Many companies collapse despite showing profits on paper. Others survive decades with modest margins because they consistently generate cash. The difference lies in the cash flow statement, not the income statement.

Today, investors can track operating cash flow, free cash flow and long-term cash trends for every listed company on Finology Ticker, where annual cash flow data and balance sheets are presented in a standard, comparable format.

Source: Tata Steel Cash Flow Statement on Finology Ticker

Profit vs cash flow: the hidden gap investors miss

Accounting profits are based on accruals. Revenue is recorded when earned, not when cash is received. Expenses are booked when incurred, not when paid.

This gap can create a dangerous illusion.

A company may show:

Despite profits, actual cash available may be less than 5 crore.

This is why 82% of business failures globally are linked to cash flow stress, not losses. Tracking only profit ignores the timing mismatch between earnings and cash.

On Ticker, investors can compare net profit vs operating cash flow over multiple years, helping identify whether profits are converting into real money.

Understanding cash flow: what actually matters

The cash flow statement has three parts, but not all are equally important.

Operating cash flow (OCF)

Investing cash flow (ICF)

Financing cash flow (FCF)

Golden rule: Over time, operating cash flow should exceed net profit.

This comparison is easily visible on Finology Ticker’s cash flow and ratios section for each company.

Case studies from Indian markets: cash flow separates winners from laggards

Reliance Industries: scale backed by cash generation

Reliance Industries is a prime example of how modest margins can still create massive shareholder value through cash flow.

FY25 highlights:

Source: Reliance Cash Flow Statement on Finology Ticker

Key reasons for strong cash flow:

Despite operating margins of only 8-10%, Reliance generates 50,000+ crore in annual free cash flow, which funds capex, debt reduction, and new businesses.

On Ticker, this transition from a high-investment phase to steady deleveraging is evident in long-term cash flow and debt trends.

Lesson: Cash generation, not margin size, funds long-term growth.

Tata Steel: when working capital eats cash

Tata Steel highlights how capital-intensive businesses can struggle with cash flow even when EBITDA looks healthy.

FY25 working capital metrics:

This means cash remains locked in inventory for extended periods.

Financial impact:

High inventory in a cyclical commodity business increases vulnerability during downturns. Even profitable years may not materially reduce debt.

Tracking inventory, cash conversion cycle and net debt together on Ticker helps investors understand this risk early.

Lesson: High EBITDA does not guarantee strong cash flow in cyclical sectors.

Hindustan Unilever: the cash conversion benchmark

HUL is considered one of India’s best cash-generating businesses.

FY25 performance:

Working capital strength:

A negative CCC indicates that HUL collects cash before paying suppliers.

This enables:

Ticker’s multi-year cash flow comparison shows how HUL consistently converts profits into cash.

Lesson: Businesses with pricing power and fast inventory cycles dominate long-term returns.

Source: HUL Brands and Ratios on Finology Ticker)

Key cash flow metrics investors must track

Operating cash flow growth

OCF to net profit ratio

Free cash flow

Cash conversion cycle

Free cash flow yield

All these metrics are available on Finology Ticker without manual calculations.

Screening stocks using cash flow filters

Cash flow-based screening reduces risk significantly.

Effective filters include:

In the image below, you can get the query to filter stocks using cash flow filters. Finology Ticker Stock Screener can help you get results in seconds and it is free to use.

Source: Finology Ticker Stock Screener

Red flags investors should not ignore

Common warning signs:

Most long-term wealth destroyers show these signs well before stock prices collapse.

Final takeaway

Profits attract attention. Cash flow determines survival.

Companies that consistently convert earnings into cash withstand cycles, reduce debt and reward shareholders. Those that depend on external funding eventually struggle.

With structured access to cash flow statements, ratios, and long-term trends on Finology Ticker, investors now have the data they need. The advantage comes from using it consistently.

In the long run, stock prices follow cash, not accounting profits.

Finology is a SEBI-registered investment advisor firm with registration number: INA000012218.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

by Mint