India's goods and services exports are likely to rise by 3% to $850 billion in the financial year ending 2025-26, according to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) data, an economic think tank, reported the news agency PTI on 25 December 2025.
In the 2024-25 fiscal year, the overall Indian exports hit $825 billion, which was $438 billion in merchandise and $387 billion in services, according to the agency report.
According to the agency report, the economic think tank said that India's exports in the year 2026 are set to face a tougher global trade environment than what the country has seen in recent years.
They said that the rising protectionism in advanced economies, weakening global demand and new climate-linked trade barriers are colliding just as India is trying to scale up exports.
What did GTRI say?
GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said that the result is an outlook marked less by expansion and more by the challenge of holding ground.
“In FY26, goods exports are likely to stay broadly flat, squeezed by weak global demand and renewed US tariff pressure, while services exports may inch past USD 400 billion. That would lift total exports to roughly USD 850 billion,” Srivastava said, cited the news agency.
The external environment is deteriorating fast, he said, adding that Europe presents a different, but equally costly, challenge.
The European Union will activate its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on January 1, 2026, effectively imposing a carbon tax on imports.
Even before payments begin, compliance and reporting requirements have already pushed India's steel exports to the EU down by about 24 per cent, he noted.
“From 2026, EU importers will price Indian goods inclusive of CBAM costs, with payments settled through certificate surrender in 2027,” he added.
GTRI suggested that the government urgently review the performance of its FTAs' sector by sector to ensure they are actually expanding exports, integrating Indian firms into global value chains, and delivering measurable trade gains rather than remaining under-utilised diplomatic trophies.