Timothée Chalamet sees the Academy Awards like the Super Bowl.
When he starred in “Marty Supreme,” he believed that this was the proverbial team that was going to lead him to a championship trophy at the end of it.
When the ping pong biopic came out to rave reviews from critics and fans alike, it appeared as if the bright-eyed actor was going to become one of the youngest to ever win Best Actor at the Oscars.
It was his destiny. He put his heart and soul into the campaign of the movie, appearing anywhere and everywhere during the stretch that the movie was about to come out. From viral videos to must-have merchandise to unorthodox content that pushed the limits of spectacle and insanity, Chalamet was doing it.
And while he was the favorite to win Best Actor for months, as we approach the show on Sunday, his odds have severely dropped.
Once the undisputed Goliath with a ping pong paddle in his hand has traded that in for a slingshot, as he’s the David looking up at Michael B. Jordan and “Sinners” as the odds-on favorite to take home the trophy on Sunday.
Per Kalshi, the prediction website, Chalamet had a 78% chance of winning Best Actor two months ago, in early January.
But after Michael B. Jordan’s performance in “Sinners” earned him Best Actor at the SAG Awards, the race shifted entirely. As the voters for the SAG Awards and the Oscars overlap, it can often be a strong clue to who might win the Academy Award during the ceremony.
As of the time of the writing of this article, Jordan is now sitting at 61% chance to win Best Actor, while Chalamet is below 30% for the first time in 2026.
Sunday might be Chalamet’s Super Bowl, but this go-around, he might be the New England Patriots, watching rival Michael B. Jordan hold up the Best Actor award as the new champion of their shared craft.