For decades, the AFC South has been the most overlooked division in football.
That changed in 2025, as the likes of the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Indianapolis Colts were all main characters of the NFL at some point during the campaign. Even the Tennessee Titans, who were bad, were still interesting, with No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward piloting them at quarterback.
How are things going to shake out in 2026?
Here are my extremely early projections for how the AFC South will shake out this upcoming campaign.
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1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence might finally be the Trevor Lawrence prophesied since he was a teenager in high school.
He was arguably the best QB in the NFL the final third of the season, and if Lawrence can keep that form for an entire season, he’ll be a contender for MVP.
2. Houston Texans
On the flip side, CJ Stroud might not be who we thought CJ Stroud was. He won Rookie of the Year a few years ago and seemed to be on the verge of superstardom, and the Texans signal-caller has regressed every year since his first.
The Texans might have a generational defense that can win games on its own, but you need a functional QB to win in the playoffs, and I’m starting to wonder if Stroud can be that.
3. Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones and the Colts were the hot story for the first half of the 2025 season before the former New York Giants QB went down with a torn Achilles.
While Jones should be back by mid-summer, it isn’t a guarantee that he’ll be at full speed come the start of the season. And even if he is, can the Colts rediscover the magic that made them one of the best teams to begin last year?
4. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are more than likely going to be bad again, but at least fans this season can hopefully watch Ward throw bombs to Carnell Tate and get excited about the future.
And hey, they have new jerseys that look nice. That’s great.