Scientists predict that the asteroid Apophis may undergo significant surface changes when it makes its close approach to Earth in 2029, according to a new study.
The asteroid, named after the Egyptian god of chaos, will pass within 20,000 miles of Earth on April 13, 2029—closer than some human-made satellites.
While this proximity poses no danger to Earth, researchers believe the encounter could literally shake up the 1,100-foot-long space rock.
Asteroids that pass close to planets frequently show unexpectedly fresh surfaces, a phenomenon that has puzzled scientists for some time.
Using computational models based on similar asteroids, Ronald-Louis Ballouz, lead researcher from Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, and his team identified two key processes that could reshape Apophis.
First, Earth's gravitational pull is expected to trigger tremors across the asteroid beginning about an hour before its closest approach. While these quakes may seem mild by Earth standards, they could be powerful enough in Apophis' extremely low gravity to dislodge surface rocks and create distinctive patterns.
The second process involves changes to the asteroid's irregular tumbling motion. Like a poorly thrown football, Apophis doesn't rotate on a fixed axis. Earth's gravitational influence could alter this tumbling pattern, potentially triggering landslides over thousands of years as surface materials gradually destabilize.
"Apophis' gravity is about 250,000 times smaller than Earth's," Ballouz told Live Science. "So, we think that events of much smaller magnitude could plausibly shake things up on its surface."
NASA's OSIRIS-APEX mission, repurposed from the successful OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission, will have a front-row seat to observe these potential changes.
The spacecraft is scheduled to spend 18 months studying Apophis during and after its Earth encounter, providing unprecedented insights into how planetary flybys can reshape such ancient space rocks.
This research could help resolve long-standing questions about how close encounters with planets can modify asteroid surfaces, potentially advancing our understanding of solar system dynamics and asteroid evolution.
"[The results] introduce a novel mechanism for asteroid surface refreshing that may provide an answer to a decades-long problem of how close planetary encounters can modify small body surfaces," Ballouz said.
The study is currently available on the arXiv preprint database, with formal publication forthcoming in The Planetary Science Journal.
While previous observations have confirmed that Apophis will pose no impact threat to Earth during its flyby, the encounter promises to provide scientists with a unique opportunity to witness asteroid evolution in action.
Why is it Called the 'God of Chaos' Asteroid?
Apophis is the ancient Greek name for the Egyptian god of chaos Apep. The deity is also linked to earthquakes, thunder, darkness, storms, and death and was widely regarded as the most powerful force of evil in Egyptian theology.
In ancient Egyptian art, Apophis was frequently portrayed as a massive serpent, embodying chaos and darkness.
As the arch-enemy of the sun god Ra, he engaged in nightly battles against Ra's journey through the underworld. Although Apophis was defeated each night, he could never be permanently destroyed, symbolizing the perpetual struggle between order and chaos.
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Reference
Ballouz, R.-L., Agrusa, H., Barnouin, O. S., Walsh, K. J., Zhang, Y., Binzel, R. P., Bray, V. J., DellaGiustina, D. N., Jawin, E. R., DeMartini, J. V., Marusiak, A., Michel, P., Murdoch, N., Richardson, D. C., Rivera-Valentín, E. G., Rivkin, A. S., & Tang, Y. (2024). Shaking and Tumbling: Short- and Long-Timescale Mechanisms for Resurfacing of Near-Earth Asteroid Surfaces from Planetary Tides and Predictions for the 2029 Earth Encounter by (99942) Apophis (No. arXiv:2406.04864). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.04864
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