Schadenfreude is the fuel for modern football fandom but comes at a cost. Every situation in the sport can be viewed through the prism of shaming a set of supporters and there have been multiple targets in this Premier League season. Mostly in north London.
After Sunday’s defeat to Manchester City it feels like much of the English football pyramid is laughing at Arsenal. This obscures some genuinely good news for the neutral: we have an engaging title race to enjoy.
Liverpool were barely challenged in the latter portion of last season, a bit of a let-down after a genuine three-way battle for the league in 2023-24, albeit with Liverpool falling away as Jürgen Klopp’s reign wound down. This year we have the psychodrama of Arsenal against a Manchester City side who are becoming more fun by the week but are also, crucially, fallible.
Yes Rayan Cherki, Erling Haaland and Antoine Semenyo have looked unstoppable at points, but this is a team who have drawn with West Ham and lost to Tottenham this season. There was enough in Arsenal’s improved performance in Manchester to suggest they will not approach their final games with the defeatist attitude that has infected their more pessimistic supporters.
Arsenal still have a narrow lead but City have the game in hand. It is time, therefore, to examine seven of the closest title races in Premier League history to answer the question: Going into the run-in, is it better to be the chaser or the team leading the league?
2021-22: Final-day drama
City and Liverpool were separated by a point going into the final day after a remarkable resurgence from Liverpool, who were 14 points behind in January. After a 2-2 draw between the two in April, City won six of their seven remaining games, drawing at West Ham on the penultimate weekend. Liverpool matched them, with one draw at home to Spurs. On the final day City were 2-0 down at half-time to Aston Villa with Liverpool level at home to Wolves. City scored three in five minutes to win 3-2, Liverpool’s 3-1 win left them agonisingly short.
Result: Hunted win
2018-19: The league’s modern peak?
Another Klopp vs Guardiola epic, with their teams reaching levels of consistency rarely sighted simultaneously in the top flight. Liverpool won nine in a row to finish their season, City reeled off 14 consecutive victories. Liverpool had been seven points ahead in January but crucially lost to City three days into the new year. They somehow finished second on 97 points, with that their only defeat of the season. Their points total would have been enough to win the title in every season in Premier League history other than the three from 2017-20. 84 points did the job last year. In 2018-19 City, to underline their brilliance, won a domestic treble.
Result: Hunted win
2011-12: Aguerooooooooo!
Should City go into the lead with their expected win at Burnley this week, Arsenal can take heart from the season that ended with Martin Tyler’s immortal commentary of the best title denouement since Michael Thomas. Chasing suited City, who had not won the league for 44 years. They were eight points behind Manchester United with six games remaining for both. United wobbled, losing at Wigan and City and drawing 4-4 with Everton. Despite trailing to QPR going into the final minutes, City came out on top with an intervention from Sergio Agüero which you may have seen a few times since.
Result: Hunters win
1998-99: Treble winners stumble over line
United were ahead by a point, with a game in hand over champions Arsenal but fighting on three fronts after exiting the League Cup in December. Neither side lost in the league after December 20, until Arsenal’s 1-0 defeat at Leeds in the penultimate game. United were far from imperious, going 2-0 up at Liverpool but only drawing, also emerging with only two points from trips to Leeds and Blackburn. It proved enough after a win from behind on the final day against Spurs.
Result: Hunted win
1997-98: Wenger’s first double
Further inspiration from their own past, should Arsenal become chasers rather than pursued. United were 12 points ahead in Arsène Wenger’s first full season, but 10 wins in a row from March 11 onwards ate up that ground. That run included a Marc Overmars-powered first win at Old Trafford for more than a decade. United drew twice in their final six games, at home to Liverpool and Newcastle, and Arsenal had the title sewn up with two games to spare. They had the luxury of resting players for their final two league matches, both defeats, and would go on to win the FA Cup.
Result: Hunters win
1995-96: ‘I will love it’
Newcastle had led by 12 points in January but were reeled in by “can’t win anything with kids” United. With six games left for United, now leading, Newcastle were three behind but had two games in hand. Consecutive defeats away at Arsenal then the epic 4-3 at Anfield were their undoing, although Newcastle had actually won at Leeds the night of Kevin Keegan’s telling loss of composure in front of the Sky cameras. “I will love it if we beat them, love it,” gets all the attention, but “and he’s got to go to Middlesbrough and get something” was the rhetoric of a deeply rattled man. United, predictably, did get something from Middlesbrough, part of a run of 15 points from 18 in their final six.
Result: Hunted win
1994-95: Jack Walker’s fairy tale
An unusual triumph for Blackburn Rovers given they lost on the final day at Liverpool and fell apart towards final game, losing twice and only winning two of their final six. United were unbeaten in their final eight matches, but drew at home to Chelsea. Then the heroics of Ludek Miklosko prevented Alex Ferguson’s team from taking advantage of Blackburn’s loss of form, holding United to a draw at West Ham. Rare to see a modern league winner lose seven games, although this was still the 42-game-season era.
Result: Hunted win
In conclusion
This highly scientific analysis results in a 5-2 win for the teams leading with six games left. So five occasions for Arsenal supporters to take heart from, two which suggest they should abandon all hope. Or the other way around, if City fail to beat Burnley.
Two trends stick out. 1. In the earlier years of the Premier League teams vying for the title were more prone to uneven results in the run-in. 2. In these situations it really helps if you are Manchester City, ideally managed by Guardiola.