Karma comes at you quickly in Formula One. Only last weekend, when asked if Red Bull had made the right decision in promoting him to a race seat above Yuki Tsunoda, Liam Lawson dismissed his rival as a lightweight, stressing how he had eclipsed him in every feeder series. “This is my time,” he said. Except the New Zealander’s time has lasted just two of 24 races this season, with his abject displays in Melbourne and Shanghai convincing his employers to resort to their customary ruthlessness, jettisoning him for Tsunoda in time for the next race in Japan. Truly, there are crash-test dummies with more stable job prospects than those appointed to be Max Verstappen’s team-mate.
Think Elon Musk is a hatchet man? The chainsaw-wielding billionaire has nothing on the brains trust of Christian Horner and Helmut Marko, the Red Bull kingpins busily applying some Piranha Club savagery to their junior drivers’ careers. We have seen them wield the axe suddenly before: Daniil Kvyat suffered a mid-season demotion of particular brutality in 2016, while Pierre Gasly lasted only until the summer break three years later. But for Lawson to be spat out of Red Bull’s revolving door with such indecent haste signals a change, where the team’s anxiety to find a worthy partner for Verstappen is starting to look suspiciously like panic.
The problem is that Verstappen, the one man who matters above all others in the Red Bull universe, is said not to agree with Lawson’s abrupt dismissal. And you can see his logic, with his team’s exposing themselves to ridicule by refusing to retain the Kiwi even for a fortnight – especially from Zak Brown, the McLaren chief executive who has taken over from Toto Wolff as Horner’s antagonist-in-chief. You can just imagine the cackles at McLaren headquarters. Where they have a pairing of two proven winners in Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, their arch-rivals are desperately seeking somebody, anybody, to act as Verstappen’s patsy.
On the surface, Tsunoda’s elevation is not without merit. He out-qualified Lawson at all six tracks where they competed against each other last season, beating him in four of those races. Plus, he brings significant commercial value: the sight of him in Red Bull overalls is sure to spark mayhem among home fans in Suzuka next week, just as it did for Sergio Perez in Mexico City. So why, then, did Red Bull not select him in first place, thus sparing Lawson the humiliation? The answer is that despite his high profile in Japan, one of F1’s key markets, his pedigree behind the wheel is open to doubt. The whispers are that Marko does not rate him highly, while Horner harbours concerns over his attitude and talent. Last year Horner fended off concerted pressure from Honda, the team’s engine suppliers, to give Tsunoda his chance.
The impression, unfortunately, is of a team twisting in the wind, toiling even to remain among the top three constructors as McLaren streak over a distant horizon. For Verstappen, who needs to mount a campaign of sustained genius to stand any chance of a fifth straight world title, it can only be unsettling. The machinations last year were disruptive enough, with the Dutchman strikingly reticent about backing Horner as the team principal battled allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards a female employee, of which he was subsequently cleared. But the more recent turmoil could prompt Verstappen to contemplate his future afresh. While he might have a contract until 2028, he has a break clause enabling him to cut ties earlier if Marko, his closest ally, departs.
And the team waiting to pounce on any further disharmony? Mercedes. Wolff has long been open about the option to “flirt” with Verstappen, even offering overtures as he recruited teenager Kimi Antonelli to drive alongside George Russell. In the shadow of the Horner controversy, he spoke about his close relationship with Jos Verstappen, Max’s combustible father. Although Jos has been a quieter presence in the paddock of late, resisting any broadsides at Horner, such diplomacy is fragile.
If Verstappen Jnr becomes any more peeved at Red Bull chopping and changing his team-mates – he is now on to his seventh – then a leap to the Silver Arrows is by no means inconceivable. After all, both Russell and Antonelli are out of contract at the end of this year. Horner can hardly be blind to the risks. He came perilously close to alienating his superstar at the height of his own controversy 13 months ago. Now, after making Lawson the latest sacrificial lamb, he is in danger of driving Verstappen out altogether.