Unfavorable weather in Brazil and low global inventories have pushed Arabica prices up by more than 4%, while Robusta prices have also increased by over 2%.
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At the close of trading on January 6th, the industrial raw materials group saw dominant buying pressure as most key commodities in the group simultaneously increased in price; in particular, Arabica coffee prices rose by more than 4% to reach $8,241/ton; Robusta coffee prices also increased by more than 2.3% to $4,157/ton.
According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the focus of yesterday's global coffee price surge revolved around unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil – the world's Arabica producing "capital". The prolonged adverse weather conditions are directly threatening the potential of the upcoming crop, creating widespread market anxiety.
According to data from Climatempo, rainfall in Minas Gerais state during the first week of the year reached only 47.9 mm, a mere 67% of the historical average. Notably, forecast scenarios indicate that erratic rainfall will continue throughout January, putting pressure on short-term supply.
In the long term, the global supply and demand picture continues to favor price support as inventories remain low while stockpiles in key consuming markets are at an alarming level. Data from the European Coffee Federation (ECF) shows that total inventories as of November had fallen to 471,389 tonnes – the lowest level in a decade.
A similar situation was observed at the ICE exchange, where Arabica inventories, despite a slight recovery on Tuesday, remained hovering around their 1.75-year lows. Similarly, Robusta inventories only edged up slightly to over 4,152 lots after hitting a one-year low in early December.
Amidst tightening global supply, coffee flows from Vietnam are playing a crucial counterbalancing role, helping to alleviate tensions in the international market. According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's coffee exports in 2025 are projected to reach an impressive 1.58 million tons, a 17.5% increase year-on-year. Notably, exports in December saw a dramatic 40.8% year-on-year increase, equivalent to approximately 3 million bags. While this supply effort has somewhat eased localized shortages, it is still insufficient to reverse investor concerns about the existing risks in Brazil.
Contrary to the sharp upward trend in world coffee prices, the domestic bulk coffee market has seen a slight downward correction. This divergence mainly stems from short-term supply pressure as the new harvest enters its peak phase, forcing warehouses and businesses to increase sales to optimize capital flow. Simultaneously, the surge in exports in December also contributed to short-term profit-taking in key coffee-growing regions.
Currently, the purchase price at export warehouses and large enterprises is commonly in the range of 97,000 - 98,500 VND/kg, while prices in Dak Lak , Lam Dong, and Gia Lai have decreased by about 1,000 - 1,250 VND/kg compared to the previous day.