This move has raised expectations of a more abundant global supply in the future. Meanwhile, the downward price trend has been significantly limited by the prolonged supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and declining energy reserves in the US.
Accordingly, Brent crude oil futures for June 2026 (which expires on April 30) fell 1 cent to $111.25 per barrel in early afternoon trading in Vietnam. The July 2026 contract fell 28 cents to $104.12 per barrel.
Analysts believe that leaving OPEC means the UAE will no longer be bound by production quotas, thus potentially increasing its supply. However, this additional crude oil is unlikely to reach the market immediately due to serious logistical bottlenecks in the Middle East. Therefore, the current decline is more of a technical correction, and benchmark oil prices remain pegged at high levels.
On the ground, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Despite a ceasefire between the US and Iran, media reports indicate that US officials have been instructed to prepare for a potential extension of the blockade on Iranian ports to maintain economic pressure. Observers warn that if the blockade is further extended, supply disruptions will worsen, driving oil prices even higher.
Besides geopolitical risks, the price of "black gold" is also being supported by tightening supply in the US. Market sources, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), show that US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels in the week ending April 24. Notably, gasoline and distillate product inventories also fell sharply by 8.47 million barrels and 2.6 million barrels, respectively, during the reporting period.